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Day 3: Drawing Marbles
Day 3: Drawing Marbles
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I arrived at answer in a simple way:
Say initial state of the bag is: R1 R2 R3 B1 B2 B3 B4
Imagine first marble removed is Red(R1).
The remaining is: R2 R3 B1 B2 B3 B4 = 6 marbles
Now I have to pick one more marble.
Total number outcomes = Number of permutations when I pick 1 marble from a set of 6 = P(6,1) = 6
We just want the probability of a blue marble coming in that experiment.
There are 4 possible favorable outcomes: B1,B2,B3,B4
So The probability of that outcome is = 4/6
P(R) = 3/7
P(B) = 4/7
P(R|B) = 3/6 = 1/2
P(R|Bc) = 2/6 = 1/3
P(Bc) = 1-4/7 = 3/7
P(B|R) = P(R|B) * P(B) / P(R|B) * P(B) + P(R|Bc) * P(Bc)
P(B|R) = { (1/2) * (4/7) } / { (1/2) * (4/7) + (1/3) * (3/7) }
P(B|R) = { (4/14) } / { (4/14) + (1/7) }
P(B|R) = { (4/14) } / { (4/14) + (2/14) }
P(B|R) = (4/14) / (6/14)
P(B|R) = (4/6)
P(B|R) = (2/3)
2 / 3
2/3 because there are 2 red marbles and 4 blue marbles