Aarsh Sahai

Summer Intern -Transition Risk Scenario Design and Analysis

EY•  April 2024 - May 2024•  Mumbai, India

Forecasted transition risk pathways contextualized for the Indian economy based on NGFS scenarios (Below 2°C, Net Zero 2050, NDCs, Current Policies, Delayed Transition, Fragmented World). Developed an ensemble model on Python using VARMAX and BiLSTM with an overall MAE of 0.05 to forecast sectoral GVAs for each NGFS scenario. Utilized Scikit-learn for data preprocessing and Plotly for visualizations during the exercise. Analyzed and interpreted results to provide insights into economic impacts, using Time-Varying Relative Difference.